01
反事实历史长篇
宫墙外的雪：立宪中国
Snow Beyond the Palace Walls
皇帝交出了权力，
国家如何经受此后的百年？
另一条中国历史，从一场艰难的权力交接展开。战争、蒙古自治、资源争端和群众运动接连而来；写进制度的承诺，要由不同的人在利益与恐惧中兑现。
权力交接蒙古与自治跨代命运
23章反事实历史长篇。现可阅读总导读与十六个专题入口；正文试读另行补入。
01 / 02两组作品，不同的阅读入口
SNOW BEYOND THE PALACE WALLS · CHOOSE YOUR QUESTION
Start with what matters to you.
You do not need to read twenty-three chapters first. Enter through Mongolia, women’s lives, the military, history or law. The overall introduction connects the strands.
THE WHOLE BOOK
A century-long stress test of the state
The author’s long-form overview connects the crown, military, Mongolia, women, war and succession. Includes discussion of later events.
Mongolia | Autonomy, memory & control of resources
From princes and grasslands to ethnic suspicion, language and mining: what makes autonomy real?
Women | Who gets to choose a life?
Education, work, marriage and public life: do new institutions change her actual choices?
The military | Who owns the guns?
Retainers, pay, appointments and power after war: how does a strong army accept limits?
Law | Can the government lose?
When centre and region both have a case, who can tell power where to stop?
Parliament & parties | Can the loser remain?
Argument, party splits and elections: can political defeat cease to threaten survival?
Crowds & state force | The hundred thousand in the rain
Workers, students, Mongolian youth and advocates of faster change meet in the streets. The army waits outside. What next?
The crown & tradition | What remains after power?
Puyi, Wanrong and the next generation: does preserving history require preserving governing power?
Class & modernisation | Opportunity for whom?
Merchants, workers, students and professionals: how do their interests enter politics?
War & institutions | Will power be returned?
Fear in battle, evacuated cities and dismantled machines: what becomes of constitutional limits?
Departure & succession | Can the country continue without me?
He Zhe declines to stay; Lu Chengwu says it is no longer his turn. Why is leaving difficult?
Manchu & Qing inheritance | Living with a complex past
Territory, banner society and Manchu–Mongol ties: how do imperial relationships become civic ones?
Political community | How can different people belong?
Must language, religion, memory and common citizenship cancel one another out?
Education | Who learns to ask why?
Girls’ schools, local languages, overseas study and newspapers: how does knowledge become judgement—and pressure?
Land | What is lost when an old route disappears?
Land documents, debt, pastoral routes and family choices: who lives on the map’s empty space?
Resources | Who gains, and who pays?
Minerals, industrial corridors, wells and accidents: how must national need answer local claims?
Institutional maturity | What if no hero intervenes?
After emperors, commanders and founders leave, can error be corrected and the country continue?
Thematic articles are website editions edited from author-supplied material, with plot discussion. Novel extracts are a separate reading experience and will be added when selected.
Download the English cover ↓
02 — WAR FICTION俄乌战争三部曲
战线上的人
People on the Front Line
屏幕显示打中了，
前面的人为什么还不敢站起来？
无人机看见爆炸，地面仍有枪声。十分钟的信息缺口、一条通向河岸的路、六个月后的自由，把车长、观察员、军医、士兵和等待亲人的人带进不同的选择。
One war, three reasons to read. Discover a novella through its guide, then judge the story in a complete opening chapter.
Modern combat · Information gaps · Communications
Ten Minutes Without a Feed
The drone sees a hit. Why can the men ahead still not stand?
A drone operator, an artillery observer and a Bradley crew hold different pieces of the battle. Unstable feeds, possible interference and relief expose the gap between hitting a target and being able to move.
Combined arms · Kherson & the river · A mother waiting
The Other Bank
The unit reports arrival. A mother is still dialling.
Tanks, infantry, drones and artillery each have blind spots. A retreat towards the river, casualty evacuation and a mother’s questions place the survival of a formation alongside the fate of one person.
Wagner · Prisoner recruitment · Freedom & responsibility
Six Months
Wagner promises freedom after six months. Others begin to follow him.
Sergei, a prisoner guilty of a serious crime, reaches Bakhmut. He wants to go home and gradually gains responsibility for others. His return date, their trust and his self-preservation become inseparable.
免费正文试读 · 与导读分开
现在，让故事自己说话。
BOOKSHOP DEMO · ALL AMOUNTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE
From choosing a book to delivery.
Try the flow: choose a book, language, quantity and delivery, then review a sample total. This version takes no orders or payments and collects no delivery addresses.
ILLUSTRATIVE PRINT PRICE
People on the Front Line
Three war novellas · Proposed print collection
A$34.00Format, volume count, production costs and final price remain to be confirmed.
ILLUSTRATIVE PRINT PRICE
Snow Beyond the Palace Walls
Twenty-three-chapter novel · Proposed print edition
A$58.00Format, volume count, production costs and final price remain to be confirmed.
Illustrative shipping: Australia standard from A$12 · Australia express from A$18 · international from A$35. Quantity changes the sample shipping amount. These are not carrier quotes.
研究与案例 · 从观察到判断
在复杂局势中，看见真正的选择。
从军事史、政治思想到管理与公共事务，云隐山关注不同领域中反复出现的决策问题：面对不完整的信息、相互冲突的目标和不断变化的环境，如何理解局势、比较选择并修正判断。
案例 001｜赫尔松右岸撤退：城市与兵力的取舍 ↗
案例研究 · 2022 年 7 月—11 月
01｜背景与初始局势
2022 年，俄军控制赫尔松市及第聂伯河右岸部分地区。河流位于其后方，跨河交通与补给承受乌军持续打击；与此同时，赫尔松具有政治、地理与军事意义。
02｜主矛盾：城市价值与兵力保存
表面问题是守还是撤；更深的问题，是如何权衡守住城市的政治与战略价值，与维持部队及其后续能力的需要。
03｜为什么这样判断？
城市价值与部队保存都服务于更大的目标，却受到同一条河流、有限补给条件和不断变化的局势制约。随着交通线受压，继续固守的成本与风险可能上升；因此，仅问“守不守城市”不足以解释取舍。这个主矛盾是本案例的分析框架，不是对当时决策者内部想法的直接证明。
04｜局势演变
7—8 月：乌军加大对桥梁和补给设施的打击，跨河运输面临越来越大的压力。9—10 月：战场形势变化，右岸局势日益紧张；公开资料显示俄方采取了人员转移与相关准备。11 月：俄军撤出右岸，乌军收复赫尔松市。
05｜关键决策节点
从决策者视角，先停下来想一想：D1：继续坚持既定目标，还是改变方向？D2：增加投入，还是收缩范围？D3：立即调整，还是等待更多信息？每个选择都涉及不同的时间、资源与风险。以上是事后提出的分析问题，并非当时内部决策记录。
06｜风险与结果
主要风险包括交通与补给中断、组织混乱、人员与装备损失，以及延误后选择空间缩小。结果是俄军放弃赫尔松市并撤往左岸，乌军重新控制右岸地区；具体损失与各部队状态仍有公开信息的局限。
07｜案例结论与思考卡
撤退是改变部署的一种选择，是否达到目的，应结合目标、代价与长期结果评估。这个案例引出三个可供其他领域讨论的问题：什么是必须保留的核心能力？什么时候应重新评估既定目标？哪些风险值得提前纳入判断？
案例 010B｜ChatGPT 的崛起：AI 时代的入口竞争 ↗
商业战略案例 · 2022—2025
01｜局势：新产品改变了什么？
2022 年 11 月，OpenAI 发布 ChatGPT 研究预览，让用户通过对话直接与 AI 交互。2023 年，微软将 OpenAI 模型引入 Bing；此后 Google 也在搜索中推出 AI Mode。新旧入口之间既有竞争，也有融合。
02｜主要矛盾：已有入口与新入口
这一案例提出的分析框架是：既有平台如何维护搜索、产品和商业模式上的优势，同时应对对话式 AI 带来的新用户习惯？入口是其中一个战略视角；技术能力、算力、成本、可信度和盈利方式同样重要。
03｜参与方与不同位置
OpenAI：通过 ChatGPT 提供直接面向用户的对话体验。Google：同时拥有搜索入口，并将 AI 引入搜索产品。Microsoft：结合 OpenAI 技术、Bing 与其他产品寻求机会。Nvidia：提供被行业广泛采用的计算硬件与软件，是竞争中的重要基础设施供应者。
04｜如果你是决策者：三种选择
A：强化现有入口，把 AI 加入已有产品。好处是利用现有用户与渠道；挑战是新体验可能受旧模式限制。B：建设独立 AI 入口。好处是可以围绕新需求设计体验；挑战是获客、成本与商业化。C：两条路径并行。好处是保留现有基础并探索新机会；挑战是资源分配和产品定位。
05｜为什么从入口切入？
入口决定用户如何开始获取信息、使用服务和形成习惯，也影响企业能够建立怎样的产品关系。ChatGPT 的对话界面与微软将 AI 嵌入搜索，提供了两种可观察的产品路径；Google 搜索中的 AI Mode 则表明，新旧入口也能结合。入口是本案例的分析视角，并非对企业内部动机或最终胜负的断言。
06｜决策启示与思考卡
入口优先：观察用户从哪里开始，而不只看功能。重新定义竞争：当用户行为改变，重新审视竞争的边界。生态协同：评估产品、渠道与合作伙伴能否相互支持。对具体企业而言，每张卡都要结合自身资源、客户和风险判断。
公开资料参考：OpenAI · 30 Nov 2022 · Microsoft · 7 Feb 2023 · Google · 20 May 2025
研究从一个真实问题开始；咨询则把同样的思考方式带入你所面对的选择。
了解决策咨询 →COMPLEX DECISIONS · RESEARCH & ADVISORY
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探索 Beta 决策体验 ↗
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